ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ИССЛЕДОВАНИЮ ДЕТЕРМИНАНТ РЕПРОДУКТИВНОГО ПОВЕДЕНИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ Theoretical approaches to examining the determinants of rural populations reproductive behavior
Блинова Т.В., д.э.н., Вяльшина А.А., к.социол.н., ИАгП РАН T. Blinova, doctor of economic sciences, A. Vyalshina, candidate of sociological sciences, IAgP RAS
В работе представлен анализ теоретических подходов и результатов эмпирических исследований факторов репродуктивного поведения населения. Факторы, объясняющие ожидаемые изменения рождаемости, были классифицированы как действующие на индивидуальном уровне, микроуровне, мезоуровне (на уровне социальных взаимоотношений и социальных сетей), макроуровне (на уровне культурных традиций и институциональных структур общества). Выполнен углубленный анализ факторов микроуровня. Показано, что в сельской местности особо прослеживается межпоколенное транслирование репродуктивных ориентаций, а также соответствующих моделей репродуктивного поведения. В то же время усвоение молодыми сельчанами городских стереотипов поведения и усиление ориентации на внесемейные ценности будут способствовать сокращению рождаемости. The paper presents an analysis of the theoretical approaches and the results of empirical research of the factors of reproductive behavior of the population. Factors explaining the anticipated change in fertility have been classified as influential on the individual level, micro level, meso level (the level of social relationships and social networks) and macro level (the level of cultural traditions and institutional structures of the society). We have performed an in-depth analysis of the micro-level factors. It is shown that in rural areas, there can be clearly traced the intergenerational transmission of reproductive attitudes and respective models of reproductive behavior. At the same time, the adoption of urban behavioral stereotypes by the rural young people and their increasing orientation towards non-family values are likely to contribute to the fall of fertility.
Ключевые слова: репродуктивное поведение, детерминанты, факторы, ценности Keywords: reproductive behavior, determinants, factors, values
1. Блинова, Т.В., Вяльшина, А.А. Отношение сельских женщин с детьми к профессиональной занятости / Т.В. Блинова, А.А. Вяльшина // Человек и труд. – 2011. - № 11.
2. Блинова, Т.В., Вяльшина, А.А. Репродуктивные предпочтения сельских женщин и ценность детей в семье / Т.В. Блинова, А.А. Вяльшина // Вестник Саратовского гос. соц.-экон. ун-та. - 2012. - № 4 (43). - С. 165-170.
3. Блинова, Т.В., Вяльшина, А.А. Потенциал роста рождаемости в группе работающих сельских женщин / Т.В. Блинова, А.А. Вяльшина // Региональные агросистемы: экономика и социология. [Электронный ресурс]. - Саратов: ИАгП РАН. - 2014. - № 2. – URL: http//www.iagpran.ru
4. Блинова, Т.В., Вяльшина, А.А. Потребность в детях и линии репродуктивного поведения сельских женщин / Т.В. Блинова, А.А. Вяльшина // Региональные агросистемы: экономика и социология. [Электронный ресурс]. - Саратов: ИАгП РАН. - 2014. - № 3. – URL: http//www.iagpran.ru
5. Aassve, A., Goisis, A., & Sironi, M. (2011). Happiness and Childbearing across Europe. Social Indicators Research, 1–22.
6. Agrillo, C., & Nelini, C. (2008). Childfree by Choice: A Review. Journal of Cultural Geography, 25, 347–363.
7. Ajzen, I. (1991). The Theory of Planned Behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.
8. Amuedo-Dorantes, C., & Kimmel, J. (2005). The Motherhood Wage Gap for Women in the United States: The Importance of College and Fertility Delay. Review of Economics of the Household, 3, 17–48.
9. Axinn, W.G., Clarkberg, M.E., & Thornton, A. (1994). Family Influences on Family Size Preferences. Demography, 31, 65–79.
10. Begall, K., & Mills, M.C. (2012). The Influence of Educational Field, Occupation, and Occupational Sex Segregation on Fertility in the Netherlands. European Sociological Review. doi:10.1093/esr/jcs051.
11. Berrington, A. (2004). Perpetual Postponers? Women’s, Men’s and Couple’s Fertility Intentions and Subsequent Fertility Behaviour. Population Trends, 117, 9–19.
12. Billari, F.C. (2001a). A Log-logistic Regression Model for a Transition Rate with a Starting Threshold. Population Studies, 55(1), 15–24.
13. Billari, F.C., Kohler, H.-P., Andersson, G., & Lundstrom, H. (2007). Approaching the Limit: Long-term Trends in Late and Very Late Fertility. Population and Development Review, 33:49–170.
14. Blinova, T., Vyalshina, A. Employment of Rural Women in Russia: Opportunities and Constraints / T. Blinova, A. Vyalshina // Economic Science for Rural Development. Proceeding of the International Conference. Jelgava, LLU ESAF, 24-25 April, 2014, № 35. Latvia. Pp. 208-216.
15. Blossfeld, H.-P., & Huinink, J. (1991). Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? How Women’s Schooling and Career Affect the Process of Family Formation. American Journal of Sociology, 97, 143–168.
16. Caldwell, J.C., & Schindlmayr, T. (2003). Explanations of the Fertility Crisis in Modern Societies: A Search for Commonalities. Population Studies, 57(3), 241–263.
17. Caltabiano, M. (2008). Has the Fertility Decline Come to an End in the Different Regions of Italy? New Insights from a Cohort Approach. Population, 63(1), 157–172.
18. Cigno, A., & Ermisch, J. (1989). A Microeconomic Analysis of the Timing of First Births. European Economic Review, 33, 737–760.
19. Cooke, L.P. (2009). Gender Equity and Fertility in Italy and Spain. Journal of Social Policy, 38(1), 123–140.
20. Esping-Andersen, G. (2009). The Incomplete Revolution: Adapting Welfare States to Women’s New Roles. Cambridge: Polity Press.
21. Frejka, T., Jones, G.W., & Sardon, J.-P. (2010). East Asian Childbearing Patterns and Policy Developments. Population and Development Review, 36, 579–606.
22. Goldstein, J.R., Sobotka, T., & Jasilioniene, A. (2009). The End of Lowest-low Fertility? Population and Development Review, 35(4), 663–700.
23. Gustafsson, S.S. (2005). Having Kids Later. Economic Analyses for Industrialized Countries. Review of Economics of the Household, 3(1), 5–16.
24. Hakim, C. (2003). A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns: Preference Theory. Population and Development Review, 29(3), 349–374.
25. Hank, K., & Kohler, H.-P. (2000). Gender Preferences for Children in Europe: Empirical Results from 17 FFS Countries. Demographic Research, 2(1), 133–144.
26. Hoem, J.M. (1986). The Impact of Education on Modern Family-union Initiation. European Journal of Population, 2, 113–133.
27. Joshi, H. (2002). Production, Reproduction and Education: Women, Children and Work in a British Perspective. Population and Development Review, 28, 445–474.
28. Kahn, J.R., & Anderson, K.E. (1992). Intergenerational Patterns of Teenage Fertility. Demography, 29, 39–57.
29. Kneale, D., & Joshi, H. (2008). Postponement and Childlessness: Evidence from Two British Cohorts. Demographic Research, 19, 1935–1968.
30. Kohler, H.-P., & Kohler, I. (2002). Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises. European Journal of Population, 18(3), 233–262.
31. Kohler, H.-P., Behrman, J.R., & Skytthe, A. (2005). Partner + Children = Happiness? The Effects of Partnerships and Fertility on Well-being. Population and Development Review, 31(3): 407–445.
32. Kravdal, O. (1994). The Importance of Economic Activity, Economic Potential and Economic Resources for the Timing of First Birth in Norway. Population Studies, 48, 249–267.
33. Kreyenfeld, M. (2010). Uncertainties in Female Employment Careers and the Postponement of Parenthood in Germany. European Sociological Review, 26(3), 351–366.
34. Kulu, H., & Boyle, P.J. (2009). High Fertility in City Suburbs: Compositional or Contextual Effects? European Journal of Population, 25(2), 157–174.
35. Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition. European Journal of Population, 26(2), 159–182.
36. Matthews, B. (1999). The Gender System and Fertility: An Exploration of the Hidden Links. Canadian Studies in Population, 26(1), 21–38.
37. McCrary, J., & Royer, H. (2011). The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth. American Economic Review, 101(1), 158–195.
38. McDonald, P. (2000a). Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition. Population and Development Review, 26(3), 427–439.
39. Mencarini, L., & Tanturri, M.L. (2006). High Fertility or Childlessness: Micro-level Determinants of Reproductive Behaviour in Italy. Population, 61(4), 389–416.
40. Meron, M., & Widmer, I. (2002). Unemployment Leads Women to Postpone the Birth of their First Child. Population, 57(2), 301–330.
41. Miller, A.R. (2010). The Effect of Motherhood Timing on Career Path. Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071–1100.
42. Miller, W.B. (2011). Comparing the TPB and the T-D-I-B Framework. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 9(1), 19–29.
43. Miller Torr, B.M., & Short, S.E. (2004). Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility. Population and Development Review, 30, 109–130.
44. Mills, M., & Begall, K. (2010). The Impact of Gender Preferences on Third Births in Europe: A Multilevel Examination of Men and Women. Population Studies, 64(1), 77–95.
45. Morgan, S.P., & Bachrach, C.A. (2011). Is the Theory of Planned Behaviour an Appropriate Model for Human Fertility? Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 9(1), 11–18.
46. Morgan, S.P., & Taylor, M.G. (2006). Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-first Century. Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 375–399.
47. Murphy, M., & Wang, D. (2001). Family-level Continuities in Childbearing in Low-fertility Societies. European Journal of Population, 17, 75–96.
48. Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F.C. (2009). Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines. Nature, 460(7256), 741–743.
49. Nauck, B. (2007). Value of Children and the Framing of Fertility: Results from a Cross-cultural Comparative Survey in 10 Societies. European Sociological Review, 23(5), 615–629.
50. Noguera, C.S., Golsch, K., & Stainhage, N. (2003). Increasing Uncertainty in the Spanish Labour Market and Entry into Parenthood. Genus, 58(1), 77–119.
51. Oppenheimer, V.K. (1988). A Theory of Marriage Timing. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 563–591.
52. Pampel, F.C., & Peters, H.E. (1995). The Easterlin Effect. Annual Review of Sociology, 21, 163–194.
53. Parr, N. (2010). Satisfaction with Life as an Antecedent of Fertility: Partner + Happiness = Children? Demographic Research, 22(21), 635–661.
54. Philipov, D. (2009). Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap. European Journal of Population, 25, 355–361.
55. Pouwels, B.J. (2011). Work, Family, and Happiness: Essays on Interdependencies within Families, Life Events, and Time Allocation Decisions. PhD Dissertation: Utrecht University.
56. Rijken, A.J., & Liefbroer, A.C. (2009). The Effects of Relationship Quality on Fertility. European Journal of Population, 25, 27–44.
57. Rindfuss, R., & Vandenheuvel, A. (1990). Cohabitation: A Precursor to Marriage or an Alternative to Being Single? Population and Development Review, 16(4), 703–726.
58. Schoen, R., Astone, N.M., Kim, Y.J., Nathanson, C.A., & Fields, J.M. (1999). Do Fertility Intentions Affect Fertility Behavior? Journal of Marriage and the Family, 61(3), 790–799.
59. Sobotka, T., Billari, F.C., & Kohler, H.-P. (2010). The Return of Late Childbearing in Developed Countries: Causes, Trends and Implications. Vienna: Vienna Institute of Demography.
60. Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., & Philipov, D. (2011). Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. Population and Development Review, 2, 267–306.
61. Speder, Z., & Kapitany, B. (2009). How Are Time-dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward. European Journal of Population, 25, 503–523.
62. Thornton, A. (1980). The Influence of First Generation Fertility and Economic Status on Second Generation Fertility. Population and Environment, 3, 51–72.
63. Van Bavel, J. (2010). Choice of Study Discipline and the Postponement of Motherhood in Europe: The Impact of Expected Earnings, Gender Composition and Family Attitudes. Demography, 47, 439–458.
64. Vitali, A., Billari, F.C., Prskawetz, A., & Testa, M.R. (2009). Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective. European Journal of Population, 25(4), 413–438.
Скачать файл: Скачать